A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control

In this paper we model the U.S. economy parsimoniously in an a theoretic state space representation. We use monthly data for thirteen macroeconomic variables. We treat the federal deficit as a proxy for fiscal policy and the fed funds rate as a proxy for monetary policy and use each of them as control (exogenous) variables, and designate the rest as state variables. The output (measured) variable is the growth rate of quarterly real GDP which we interpolate to obtain a monthly equivalent. We specify a linear relation between state variables and implicitly allow for time variation of the relationship by using a recursive least squares (RLS) with forgetting factor algorithm to estimate the coefficients. The model coefficients are also estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) and the resulting forecasts (in-sample and out-of-sample) are compared. The RLS algorithm performs better in the out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for those state variables which exhibit the greatest cyclical variations. Variables which had greater stability were forecasted more precisely with OLS estimated parameters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Ischaemic Preconditioning Protects Against Ischaemia/Reperfusion Injury: Emerging Concepts

AbstractIntroductionIschaemic preconditioning (IP) has emerged as a powerful method of ameliorating ischaemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury to the myocardium. This review investigates whether this phenomenon is universally applicable in modulating I/R injury to other tissues.MethodsA Medline search was conducted to identify both animal and human studies that described IP-induced protection from I/R injury in a variety of non-cardiac organ systems. Particular emphasis was placed on elucidation of underlying physiological concepts.Results and conclusionsIP utilises endogenous mechanisms in skeletal muscle, liver, lung, kidney, intestine and brain in animal models to convey varying degrees of protection from I/R injury. To date there are few human studies, but recent reports suggest that human liver, lung and skeletal muscle acquire similar protection after IP. Specifically, preconditioned tissues exhibit reduced energy requirements, altered energy metabolism, better electrolyte homeostasis and genetic re-organisation, giving rise to the concept of ‘ischaemia tolerance’. IP also induces ‘reperfusion tolerance’ with less reactive oxygen species and activated neutrophils released, reduced apoptosis and better microcirculatory perfusion compared to non-preconditioned tissue. Systemic I/R injury is also diminished by preconditioning. IP is ubiquitous but more research is required to fully translate these findings to the clinical arena

Forecasting with an adaptive control algorithm

We construct a parsimonious model of the U.S. macro economy using a state space representation and recursive estimation. At the core of the estimation procedure is a prediction/correction algorithm based on a recursive least squares estimation with exponential forgetting. The algorithm is a Kalman filter-type update method which minimizes the sum of discounted squared errors. This method reduces the contribution of past errors in the estimate of the current period coefficients and thereby adapts to potential time variation of parameters. The root mean square errors of out-of-sample forecast of the model show improvement over OLS forecasts. One period ahead in-sample forecasts showed better tracking than OLS in-sample forecasts.Forecasting

Classification of interruptions in a hospital central pharmacy

Interruptions in the healthcare field are prevalent. They are constantly occurring in central pharmacies within hospitals, and are a major distraction to the pharmacists who are working on vital tasks to prepare and dispense medications. An interruption is considered to be anything that makes the pharmacist stop their work to focus on a different task. This observational research project recorded the interruptions in central pharmacy of a large hospital. Analyzing interruptions can lead to process improvement aims to address issues causing such interruptions. This poster was originally presented at the 2010 MU Spring Undergraduate Research and Creative Achievements Forum

Axial Vector Current Matrix Elements and QCD Sum Rules

The matrix element of the isoscalar axial vector current, $\bar{u}\gamma_\mu\gamma_5u + \bar{d}\gamma_\mu\gamma_5d$, between nucleon states is computed using the external field QCD sum rule method. The external field induced correlator, $$, is calculated from the spectrum of the isoscalar axial vector meson states. Since it is difficult to ascertain, from QCD sum rule for hyperons, the accuracy of validity of flavour SU(3) symmetry in hyperon decays when strange quark mass is taken into account, we rely on the empirical validity of Cabbibo theory to dertermine the matrix element $\bar{u}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 u + \bar{d}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 d - 2 \bar{s}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 s$ between nucleon states. Combining with our calculation of $\bar{u}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 u + \bar{d}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 d$ and the well known nucleon $\beta$-decay constant allows us to determine $< p,s| {4/9}\bar{u}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 u + {1/9}\bar{d}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 d + {1/9}\bar{s}\gamma_{\mu}\gamma_5 s |p, s>$ occuring in the Bjorken sum rule. The result is in reasonable agreement with experiment. We also discuss the role of the anomaly in maintaining flavour symmetry and validity of OZI rule.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, revtex

Effects of the Re-Entrant Bowl Geometry on a DI Turbocharged Diesel Engine Performance and Emissions-A CFD Approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of re-entrant bowl geometry on both engine performance and combustion efficiency in a direct injection (DI

Time of birth and risk of neonatal death at term: retrospective cohort study

Objective To determine the effect of time and day of birth on the risk of neonatal death at term

Stressors in the pharmacy: An observational of interruptions in pharmacy

Errors in the healthcare field are a significant problem. Interruptions leading to distractions can cause errors as these interruptions can distract the pharmacy workers from their tasks. Hence it is important to study interruptions, their types, how they are caused, where they come from, when they occur, how long they last, and how pharmacists and technicians feel about them. The objectives of this observational study were to: 1) classify interruptions based on the type of interruption and cause, time, location, and duration, 2) identify differences in interruption types, duration and frequency across days of the week or time of day, and the analysis of these stressors can aid in improving the processes and increasing safety within the pharmacy. Poster originally presented at the MU Spring 2011 Undergraduate Research and Creative Achievements Forum

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in risk of sudden infant death syndrome, other causes of infant mortality, and stillbirth in Scotland: population based study

Objectives To compare changes in inequalities in sudden infant death syndrome with other causes of infant mortality and stillbirth in Scotland, 1985-2008

Kondo Resonance in the Presence of Spin-Polarized Currents

We propose an improved method of the equation of motion approach to study the Kondo problem in spin-dependent non-equilibrium conditions. We find that the previously introduced additional renormalization for non-equilibrium Kondo effects is not required when we use a proper decoupling scheme. Our improved formulation is then applied to address the spin-split Kondo peaks when a spin current injects into a Kondo system.Comment: 4+ pages, 4 eps figure